Oscars 2024 predictions: who will win Best Picture, Best Director, and the acting awards?

The Oscars are almost here and the internet is abuzz with speculation about who will be taking home the top prizes at the 96th Academy Awards. 

Ahead of Sunday's event, we've run the rule over the major categories. Below, we've run through historical trends, industry chatter, and (in some tight races) pure old-fashioned gut feelings in an attempt to predict who will win Best Picture, Best Director, and the main acting awards.

Oppenheimer may be leading the way with 13 nominations, but should we be expecting a clean sweep or will the likes of Poor Things, The Holdovers, and Barbie reign triumphant? 

Join us as we talk big favorites, outsiders, and possible shocks and snubs in our Oscars 2024 predictions.

Best Picture

The nominees

• American Fiction 
• Anatomy of a Fall 
• Barbie 
• The Holdovers 
• Killers of the Flower Moon
• Maestro
• Oppenheimer 
• Past Lives
• Poor Things 
• The Zone of Interest

Christopher Nolan's Oppenheimer – one half of the all-conquering 'Barbenheimer' double-bill – was a tour de force upon its release, proving wildly popular with both critics and audiences alike. 

The biopic of Robert J. Oppenheimer, the father of the atomic bomb played so astutely by Cillian Murphy, has received nods all throughout the Oscars' main categories this year and feels like the sort of rare prestige heavyweight movie event that the Academy loves so much.

Its nearest rival appears to be Poor Things, which has been picking up steam (and awards aplenty) in awards season. Still, this is Oppenheimer's to lose – and we aren't expecting shock wins for The Holdovers, Barbie, or even Martin Scorsese's Killers of the Flower Moon – a film that was among the early frontrunners for Best Picture.

Best Director

The nominees

• Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall 
• Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon 
• Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer 
• Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things 
• Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

One statistic is very telling when it comes to this category: Almost 75% of historical Best Picture winners have also seen their director pick up the award for Best Director on the same night.

On historical trends alone, Christopher Nolan should win Best Director for the first time. Of course, a shock can always be sprung and, in Scorsese, Triet, Glazer, and Lanthimos, this is potentially the strongest lineup we've seen in years – with each filmmaker delivering modern classics from a range of subject matters, all in their own inimitable style.

Best Actor

The nominees

• Bradley Cooper, Maestro 
• Colman Domingo, Rustin 
• Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers 
• Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer 
• Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Cillian Murphy has been touted as the strong favorite for Best Actor and we don't disagree. For one, the Academy often laps up biopics or those playing historical figures (see Bohemian Rhapsody for evidence of that). But it's also this year's standout performance: a deft portrayal of a man caught at a crossroads of history, one who is stripped of honor and dignity in the most humiliating of circumstances. Murphy has also been mopping up awards, including at the Golden Globes, which helps his chances plenty.

Pour one out, then, for The Holdovers' Paul Giamatti. His turn as Mr. Hunham has been slowly picking up momentum in wider circles lately. Its unfortunately staggered release (arriving in January in the UK) might count against it, however. 

Bradley Cooper, Colman Domingo, and Jeffrey Wright each delivered – in our estimations – career-best performances, or close to it. In another year, they might have prevailed.

Best Actress

The nominees

• Annette Bening, Nyad 
• Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon 
• Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall 
• Carey Mulligan, Maestro 
• Emma Stone, Poor Things

Probably the closest big-name race is the one for Best Actress. Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone are neck and neck among some bookmakers when it comes to who will be taking home the gong. 

The strongest indicator on who should win was this year's SAG awards, as they frequently provide a bellwether for the eventual winners at the Oscars. For example, Jamie Lee Curtis picked up momentum after the event and eventually took home Best Supporting Actress in 2023. Lily Gladstone won this year, seemingly edging her ahead of Emma Stone.

So, Lily Gladstone and her delicate, yet fierce, portrayal of Mollie Burkhart will likely win on the night. It's well worth it, too: the performance has been talked about for almost a year now and has all the hallmarks of a career-defining role that should get the nod from the Academy.

Best Supporting Actor

The nominees

• Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction 
• Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon 
• Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer 
• Ryan Gosling, Barbie 
• Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Another strong clutch of actors and, yet, there's only one name everyone is talking about.

Robert Downey Jr. is surely set to take home his first Oscar for his role as the vindictive, career-driven Lewis Strauss. Much like last year with Ke Huy Quan's win, this could be an early sign that Oppenheimer is set to sweep the board on the night itself, though the other actors in the category should be commended – especially Mark Ruffalo and Robert De Niro. 

Ruffalo shows he can do pretty much anything asked of him on the screen, while De Niro proves age is but a number by still operating at the peak of his powers in a deliciously evil, oily performance in Killers of the Flower Moon. Still, expect RDJ to get that Oscar.

Best Supporting Actress

The nominees

• Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer 
• Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple 
• America Ferrera, Barbie 
• Jodie Foster, Nyad 
• Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

With apologies to Emily Blunt's outrageously talented forehead vein in Oppenheimer, this award is pretty much all wrapped up for Da'Vine Joy Randolph to take home on the night. Her touching performance as cook Mary in The Holdovers contains an unshakeable depth that has caught the attention of several awards bodies already this season. America Ferrera's Barbie monologue was among the most memorable of last year, but we can't see that performance troubling the winners come Oscars night. Randolph is, by some distance, one of the leading lights and locked-in favorites for this year's Academy Awards.

For more Oscars fun, here's where to watch all the 2024 Oscar nominees right now and our pick of the best Oscar-winning movies.

Take a look ahead to this year's biggest films with our movie release dates calendar too.